Jon Wiedeman                                                                                                                         7/8/2025

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Daily ZSX5:

November Soybeans continued the sell off from Sunday night but fell short of taking out last month’s low of 1013 ¼. In my opinion if we do take out the 1013 ¼ level we will test the psychological level of $10 and see if we see any sell stops below there. We do have a double bottom of 1014 which was yesterdays and today’s low, so we can use that as support going into the night session.  Looking at the moving averages on the daily charts we have the 100 day moving average at (1030) 200 day (1032 ½) 50 day (1036 ¼) 21 day (1038) and lastly the 14 day at (1037 ¾) (see chart below).  I would look for selling opportunities up around the 1040-1044 area closing Sunday nights gap risking four cents on a stop.

Fundamentals:

With Ideal weather soybeans are looking at an up hill battle with managed money reducing their bean position to a basically neutral position, giving them a lot of ammo.  Soymeal also has a record managed money short so it will be interesting if they start getting short the soybean complex as they are also reducing their net long in bean oil.  Crop conditions remain inline with beans sitting at 66% good to excellent. We have to keep a close eye on the tariffs as well and see if any changes are made before August 1^st. 

Weekly ZSX5:

Looking at the weekly charts of November beans we have some support at last month’s low of 1013 ¼. Below that I would assume that we would test the $10 level possible hitting some sell stops below that area. The weekly moving averages are sitting at (1036 ½) for the 14 day, the 21 day (1031 ½) and 50 day (1034 ½) and lastly the 100 day at (1106 ¾) (see chart below).  We will also keep an eye on closing the gap up at 1044 ¼. Like the daily’s I like taking a stab at selling November beans at the 1040-1044 area with a relatively tight stop for what we know right now.  That could definitely change if we get some sort of the trade details sorted out and any change in the weather.

Daily ZCZ5:

December corn saw some follow through selling today taking out last month’s low of 416 ½. With ideal weather forecasted during this important time of pollination. Like beans, corn also has an uphill battle. If corn gives us the opportunity to close the gap at 432 ¾ in my opinion I think that would be a good spot to look to getting short the market at the 432 area with a tight stop at 435.  As far as the moving averages for Dec corn we have the 14 day at (429 ¼) the 21 day at (433) 50 day (439 ½) 100 day (448 ¼) and lastly the 200 day moving average at (447 ¼). (See chart below).

Fundamentals: 

Corn saw some follow through selling with new tariffs on Japan and South Korea, who are the two of the largest importers of U.S. corn.  Favorable weather is forecasted during this important time of pollination and crop rating rising to 74% good to excellent which is above last year which was at 68%. As far as the managed money position in corn goes, they added to their shorts and are now short 206,000 contracts. South America look’s to be having a bumper crop as they are currently harvesting with some slight weather delays. Keep a look out of any updates of tariffs and if we can hold the psychological $4 corn level.

Weekly ZCZ5:

Looking at the weekly charts of Dec corn we have broken last month’s low of 416½, and we have resistance at 432 ¾ (closing the daily gap).  As far as the moving averages look like on the weekly charts we have the 14 day at (443 ¾) the 21 day (447) the 50 day (446 ¼) and lastly the 100 day moving average at (467 ¼) (See chart below). We will keep a look out of any weather and trade deal changes this week.

Daily ZWU5:

September wheat closed down ¾ of a cent in SRW (Chicago contract) to settle at 547 ¾.  With a gap above the market at 556 ¼ we will watch to see if we can close that later this week with some fund short covering.  Support in Sep wheat is at 534 ¾ which was last week’s low. Looking at the daily moving averages on the wheat charts we have the 14 day at (556) and 21 day (555 ¼) and lastly the 50 day at (551). Above that we can look to test the gap at 556 ¼. (see chart below).

Fundamentals:

Wheat crop rating came in unchanged with winter wheat harvest at 53% completed, which compares to last year which was 62%. As far as the managed fund positions, they trimmed their net short position to just over 100k contracts in the entire wheat complex. We will watch to see if we can close the gap that is just above the market.

Weekly ZWU5:

Looking longer term at the weekly charts in September wheat we have support at last weeks low at 534 ¾. As far as resistance goes on the weekly charts, we have resistance at the 14 day moving average (558) the 21 day at (567) and last weeks high of 568 ¾ (see chart below).

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Jon Wiedeman

Pure Hedge Division

Direct: 1 312 957 8108

jwiedeman@walshtrading.com

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