Wheat Falling Lower on Monday

Austin Schroeder Barchart Mon Jul 7, 5:17PM CDT
Wheat field on a beautiful summer day by MadalinCalita via Pixabay

The wheat complex fell on Monday, coming out of the long weekend on a sour note. Chicago SRW wheat was down 8 to 9 cents. KC HRW contracts posted 8 to 10 cent losses on Monday. MPLS spring wheat was 9 to 10 cents lower to kick off the week.

USDA’s Crop Progress data showed the US winter wheat crop at 53% harvested, behind the 53% average. Conditions were unchanged at 48% gd/ex as the Brugler 500 index was up 2 points to 331. The spring wheat crop was 61% headed, ahead of the 58% average. Spring wheat conditions were down 3% to 48% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 iindex down 8 to 337.

Export Inspections data showed 436,628 MT (16.04 mbu) of wheat shipped in the week that ended on July 3, which was down 8.38% from the week prior, but still up 27.16% from the same week last year. Mexico was the top destination of 71,753 MT, with 63,265 MT headed to Brazil. Marketing year shipments have totaled 1.758 MMT (64.6 mbu) since June 1, 1.5% larger yr/yr.

As part of trade negotiations with the US, Indonesia Flour Mills have signed a memorandum of understanding to purchase 1 MMT of wheat per year from the US from 2026-2030, with another 800,000 MT for the remainder of 2025. Last year shipments to Indonesia totaled 838,770 MT, with 286,082 MT shipped in 2023. President Trump released a statement later in the day, raising the tariffs on Indonesian goods to 32% on August 1. Tariffs on goods from South Korea and Japan will be raised to 25%.

The delayed Commitment of Traders report showed a total of 1,596 contracts trimmed from the Chicago Spec Fund net short position by July 1 to 63,071 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut 1,114 contracts from their once record net short to 42,348 contracts.

FranceAgriMer estimates the French wheat crop at 67% gd/ex, with the crop at 11% harvested. Russia cut their export tax on wheat to 0% in their latest update, taking it back to 2021 levels when it began.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.39 3/4, down 8 cents,

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.48 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.08 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.27 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents,

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.20 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.37 1/4, down 10 cents,


On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.