For Tesla (TSLA) investors, June 2025 is shaping up to be a big month. 

Shares have dropped more than 15% so far in 2025, although they have recovered nearly 60% from their year-to-date low. The selloff was triggered by falling auto sales in Europe and other key markets, among other negative catalysts. 

But things have turned around quickly. Tesla’s stock has jumped more than 40% in just the past month, mostly because investors are excited about the upcoming robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas. CEO Elon Musk recently confirmed that the self-driving ride service will start by the end of June, and that news has brought optimism back to the stock. 

With expectations running high and the spotlight firmly on Tesla’s ability to deliver, one question looms large: Will the robotaxi rollout be the catalyst that propels the stock to new heights, or another test of patience for long-term shareholders? Let’s find out.

Tesla’s 2025 Financial Scorecard

Tesla (TSLA), valued near $1.1 trillion, designs and manufactures electric vehicles, energy storage systems, and advanced automation technologies. 

On April 22, 2025, Tesla released its first-quarter earnings, revealing a tough picture. Adjusted earnings per share landed at $0.27, down 40% year over year. Total revenue for the quarter fell 9% year-over-year to $19.3 billion, as vehicle deliveries slipped and average selling prices declined due to ongoing Model Y updates across all factories. 

CEO Elon Musk, while acknowledging the near-term headwinds, told investors, “We are focused on scaling new technologies and preparing for the next era of autonomy,” underscoring the company’s commitment to innovation despite recent volatility.

Operating income dropped 66% from the previous year, compressing margins to just 2.1% as Tesla invested heavily in artificial intelligence and research and development, even as it benefited from improved gross profit in its energy generation and storage businesses. 

Cash flow was a bright spot: Tesla generated $664 million in free cash flow, boosting its quarter-end cash and equivalents to nearly $37 billion. 

Key Growth Catalysts Powering Tesla’s Next Act

The most immediate catalyst is the pilot launch of Tesla’s robotaxi service in Austin, confirmed by Elon Musk to debut with about 10 vehicles by June 30. If this initial rollout proves successful, Tesla aims to rapidly scale the service, with plans for thousands of autonomous vehicles and a broader rollout of the purpose-built Cybercab in 2026. 

The timing is fortuitous, as U.S. regulators have recently eased crash reporting requirements for Level 2 self-driving systems, a shift that directly benefits Tesla and could help the company maintain a cleaner safety record as it pushes deeper into autonomy.

On another front, Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is moving from prototype to production this year. Already performing repetitive tasks inside Tesla’s factories, Optimus is expected to reach up to 5,000 units by the end of 2025, with commercial deployment targeted for late 2026 if scaling goals are met. Musk has floated the idea that Optimus could unlock trillions in future revenue, making it a potential game-changer for Tesla’s long-term business model.

Wall Street’s Verdict

Wall Street’s take on Tesla heading into the second half of 2025 is a blend of cautious optimism. For the current quarter ending June 2025, analysts expect earnings per share of $0.29, down from $0.42 in the same quarter last year, a projected year-over-year decline of nearly 31%. 

Looking further out, consensus estimates call for full-year 2025 EPS of $1.37, a sharp drop from last year’s $2.04, before rebounding to $2.41 in 2026, which would represent robust 76% growth as new products like the robotaxi and affordable EV ramp up.

Despite Tesla’s headline-grabbing innovations, the analyst community remains largely on the sidelines. Of the 41 analysts covering TSLA, the consensus is a “Hold” rating, with a mean price that is below the current trading price. 

Conclusion

As June 30 approaches, Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Austin is a crucial moment for the stock. If the launch goes well, it could boost the stock and support its recent gains. However, if there are problems, shares may struggle to stay afloat. 

Given Wall Street’s cautious view and Tesla’s ambitious plans, we are likely to see uneven trading with moments of optimism as key goals are reached For now, it's a waiting game, so mark your calendars.