Gold (GCM25) has been one of the best-performing global assets so far this year. Still, after soaring to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce last month, the precious metal faced sharp selling pressure as risk-on sentiment returned to global markets following easing trade tensions. As a result, many market observers began questioning whether gold’s impressive rally had finally run its course — but one legendary investor appears to disagree.

Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, is making a substantial new bet on gold, signaling his belief that the metal’s bull run may still have significant room to run. 

According to Bridgewater’s most recent 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Dalio’s firm initiated a sizable position in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), acquiring approximately 1.1 million shares worth roughly $319 million.

In this article, we’ll break down Dalio’s big bet on gold, take a closer look at GLD’s recent performance, and analyze the broader case for gold in 2025.

Why Invest in Gold?

Gold served as a financial asset long before the existence of stocks, bonds, currencies, and other modern investment options. For thousands of years, gold has functioned as a medium of exchange, a store of value, a decorative item, and a versatile commodity. Gold is a unique asset due to its limited supply, with all the metal ever mined throughout history still in existence.

“Gold bugs,” or devoted gold enthusiasts, have long advocated for including the precious metal in a well-diversified, long-term investment portfolio. The appeal of owning gold lies in the sense that part of your portfolio is shielded from chaos, which is why its price often rises during times of political and financial uncertainty. Gold is also considered a reliable hedge against inflation. Notably, the annual mine production of gold is relatively small compared to the total existing stock, making its price largely insensitive to changes in production levels. 

Investors can directly own physical gold in the form of coins, bullion, or jewelry. Institutional and individual investors can also gain indirect exposure to gold through mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), gold derivatives, or shares of gold-mining companies. According to market experts, ETFs are the optimal choice, as some are backed by physical gold and offer a much easier investment process than bullion — while also handling security and storage on behalf of the investor.

About SPDR Gold Shares ETF

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) provides investors with a secure, cost-effective, and innovative way to gain exposure to the gold market. GLD was the first gold ETF to be traded and the first U.S.-listed ETF backed by a physical asset, holding physical gold bullion as its underlying investment. Each GLD share represents ownership of one-tenth of an ounce of physical gold bullion. With that, the ETF tracks the price of gold bullion, measured in U.S. dollars and stored in London under the custody of HSBC Bank USA.

It’s an extremely popular gold ETF, with $96.6 billion in assets under management and an average daily volume of about 11.8 million shares. GLD charges investors an annual management fee of 0.4%.

Why Is GLD Outperforming?

Shares of GLD have climbed 25.5% on a year-to-date basis, significantly outperforming major U.S. benchmark indexes, which only recently managed to turn positive for the year.

Gold was one of the best-performing assets during the turbulence of Q1, climbing 20% — its strongest quarterly gain since 1986. In recent months, President Donald Trump has unsettled investor confidence by unpredictably announcing, postponing, softening, and intensifying trade wars with multiple American trading partners. As a result, investors have flocked to safe-haven assets like gold. Notably, GLD’s gold holdings grew by 61 tonnes in the first quarter.

The second quarter has been more volatile. Gold prices surged to a record high of $3,500 an ounce last month but have since come under considerable selling pressure, driven by renewed risk-on sentiment in asset markets following a U.S. trade agreement with the U.K. and a trade truce between the U.S. and China.

Meanwhile, gold has been trending higher this week, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar. The dollar weakened amid renewed economic concerns following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by one notch to Aa1. “Investors are reassessing the long-term outlook for U.S. sovereign risk. As such, safe-haven assets like gold could experience heightened demand,” said Quasar Elizundia of Pepperstone in a note. Persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties have also helped support gold prices. Notably, uncertainty remains high regarding the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, while in Washington, Republicans remain divided over Trump’s proposed tax-cut bill. Geopolitical tensions are also adding to market uncertainty, with stalled efforts to end the war in Ukraine, nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, and reports suggesting that Israel may be preparing a strike against Tehran.

Dalio’s Bridgewater Bets Big on Gold

Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, co-led by billionaire investor Ray Dalio, recently revealed a significant investment in gold. According to the 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the billionaire hedge fund manager initiated a new position in the SPDR Gold Trust during the first three months of this year, purchasing 1.1 million shares valued at approximately $319 million. This move represents a notable return to gold after Bridgewater exited its previous holdings by the end of 2023, highlighting Dalio’s continued conviction in gold as a crucial hedge during times of global economic uncertainty.

Dalio has frequently stressed the value of diversification and has recommended holding assets such as gold to hedge against risks tied to fiat currencies and geopolitical instability. “I believe a lot in diversification. I also think that people don’t typically have an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio. When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier,” Dalio stated in an interview with CNBC in mid-February. Dalio noted that, given the current environment, investors should allocate roughly 10% of their portfolio to gold.

Will Gold Prices Continue to Rise in 2025?

Multiple analysts have noted that gold is likely to maintain its upward momentum throughout the remainder of the year. Even if trade tensions continue to ease, the precious metal still has several catalysts that could drive it higher.

For example, Goldman Sachs’ Lina Thomas stated that gold is likely to set new records this year. Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that gold will climb to $3,700 per troy ounce by the end of 2025, driven by consistent monthly purchases of the precious metal by central banks. The commodity is also expected to rise as ETF investors boost their holdings in anticipation of interest rate cuts and amid mounting recession fears. Goldman Sachs Research projects that in the event of a recession, gold could climb as high as $3,880 per troy ounce.

Also, Michael Armbruster, co-founder and managing partner at futures brokerage Altavest, said, “There is nothing telling us that $3,500 is a top for gold. The trend is still up, and we are now experiencing a normal correction in a bull market.”

Trevor Yates, senior investment analyst at Global X ETFs, explained that the recent pullback in gold prices was due to “positioning and flows rather than any fundamental change in our bullish gold thesis.” He added, “We continue to see robust physical-market demand, driven by central banks, coupled with rising stagflation concerns and elevated levels of uncertainty supporting the gold price.”

Options Market Sentiment on GLD

Examining the option chain for June 20, 2025, the $306.00 CALL option has a bid/ask spread of $7.95/$8.05, while the $306.00 PUT option shows a spread of $6.65/$6.75. Keep in mind that this option strike is the nearest to the stock’s current price. We can now estimate the expected price movement by using the midpoint prices of these options:

6.70 (306.00 put) + 8.00 (306.00 call) = 14.7/305.87 = 4.8%

Based on current pricing, the options market suggests that GLD stock could move approximately 5% from the $306.00 strike price by the June 20 expiration, using the long straddle strategy. That would place GLD stock in a trading range of $291.2 to $320.6.

Notably, call options at the $306.00 strike price outnumber put options by a ratio of 1.6 to 1, with 2,193 open calls versus 1,403 open puts. Moreover, the number of open call options surpasses that of open puts at every strike price up to $315.00. This signals strong bullish sentiment, suggesting that options traders are actively betting on gold’s future gains while also reinforcing confidence in Dalio’s significant investment. 

The Bottom Line on GLD Right Now

Whether you’re aiming to hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty or pursue speculative gains, gold remains a vital asset in today’s environment — and I believe every investor should consider holding a portion of it in their portfolio for protection.

On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.