Irving, Texas-based Vistra Corp. (VST) is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. Valued at a market cap of $51.6 billion, the company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities.

This utility company has considerably outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. Shares of VST have rallied 61.4% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 9.8%. Moreover, on a YTD basis, the stock is up 10.3%, compared to SPX’s slight downtick. 

Zooming in further, VST has also outpaced the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLU) 11.5% rise over the past 52 weeks and 7.4% uptick on a YTD basis. 

On May 7, VST’s shares plunged 3.7% after its Q1 earnings release. The company reported revenue of $3.9 billion, up 28.8% year-over-year, driven by growth in both volume and customer count in its retail business. Additionally, its adjusted EBITDA surged 53.9% year over year to $1.2 billion, and the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance for ongoing operations between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion.

However, on the downside, a sharp increase in fuel, purchased power costs, delivery fees, and operating costs led to an operating loss of $120 million, compared to a profit of $86 million in the same quarter last year. Furthermore, its net loss from ongoing operations widened to $200 million from a $43 million net income in the prior-year quarter. These profitability concerns likely contributed to the decline in its share price. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect VST’s EPS to decline 16% year over year to $5.88. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It exceeded or met the consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters, while missing on two other occasions. 

Among the 14 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy” which is based on 12 “Strong Buy,” and two “Hold” ratings. 

This configuration is more bullish than three months ago, with 11 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy” rating. 

On May 15, Evercore Inc. (EVR) analyst Durgesh Chopra maintained a “Buy” rating on VST and set a price target of $192, which indicates a 26.3% potential upside from the current levels. 

The mean price target of $173.36 represents a 14% premium from VST’s current price levels, while the Street-high price target of $232 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 52.6%.