With a market cap of $9.3 billion, Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) is a biotechnology company specializing in the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Known for its COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax, the company also advances treatments across infectious diseases, oncology, and rare diseases, and has formed numerous strategic global partnerships.

Shares of the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company have significantly underperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. Moderna has decreased 80.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 8.7%. Moreover, MRNA stock has declined 41.5% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX's 4.1% decline.

Looking closer, the biotechnology company has also lagged behind the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLV) 5.7% dip over the past 52 weeks.

Shares of Moderna dropped 5.3% on May 1 after the FDA requested Phase 3 flu efficacy data for its COVID-19 and flu combo vaccine mRNA-1083, pushing expected approval to 2026 instead of late 2025. Additionally, the company reported weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 total revenue of $108 million, particularly from mResvia, which missed sales estimates significantly due to late-season approval and contracting. Spikevax sales also dropped 50% year-over-year to $84 million, contributing to the 35% overall revenue decline.

For the fiscal year ending in December 2025, analysts expect MRNA’s loss per share to decline 11.7% year-over-year to $9.91. However, the company's earnings surprise history is promising. It topped the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.

Among the 26 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold.” That’s based on three “Strong Buy” ratings, 19 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and three “Strong Sells.”

This configuration is slightly less bullish than three months ago, with four “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.

On May 2, RBC Capital analyst Luca Issi cut Moderna’s price target to $28, citing short-term challenges following its Q1 earnings and a strategic shift in its flu-COVID combo vaccine rollout. Despite this, RBC maintained a “Sector Perform" rating and remains optimistic about Moderna’s cancer vaccine and long-term platform potential.

As of writing, MRNA is trading below the mean price target of $55.09. The Street-high price target of $208 implies a significant potential upside from the current price levels.