Houston, Texas-based ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the world’s largest independent E&P companies based on production and proved reserves. With a market cap of $110.8 billion, ConocoPhillips employs nearly 11,800 people and operates in 13 countries across the Americas, Indo-Pacific, and the EMEA region.

The oil and gas explorer has significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year and in 2025. COP’s stock prices have tanked 29.1% over the past 52 weeks and 11.6% on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 8.2% gains over the past year and 4.7% decline on a YTD basis.

Narrowing the focus, COP has also underperformed the industry-focused iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF’s (IEO) 21.4% decline over the past 52 weeks and 8.3% drop on a YTD basis.

ConocoPhillips stock observed a marginal decline after the release of its Q4 results on Feb. 6. While the company delivered a notable increase of 281 MBOED in production compared to the year-ago quarter to 2,183 MBOED, due to a decrease in oil prices, ConocoPhillips’ overall topline decreased 3.7% year-over-year to $14.7 billion. Meanwhile, its adjusted net income dropped nearly 16% year-over-year to $2.4 billion. However, on a positive note, the company’s topline surpassed the Street’s expectations by 41 basis points, and its adjusted EPS of $1.98 exceeded the consensus estimates by 4.2%, which mitigated the drop in stock prices.

For the current fiscal year 2025, ending in December, analysts expect COP to report a 15% year-over-year decline in adjusted earnings to $6.62 per share. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. It has surpassed the Street's bottom-line estimates thrice over the past four quarters while missing on one other occasion.

However, COP has a consensus “Strong Buy” rating overall. Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, opinions include 19 “Strong Buys,” four “Moderate Buys,” and three “Holds.”

This configuration is slightly less bullish compared to three months ago, when 23 analysts gave "Strong Buy" recommendations.

On Apr. 23, Barclays (BCS) analyst Betty Jiang maintained a “Buy” rating on COP but lowered the target price from $135 to $120.

As of writing, COP’s mean price target of $117.04 implies a 33.6% premium to current price levels, while the Street-high target of $140 suggests a staggering 59.8% upside potential.