![]() |
Mulvane Cooperative
Cash Bids
Market Data
News
Ag Commentary
Weather
Resources
|
3 Great Companies. 3 Unusually Active Options. 3 Long Straddles.![]() If yesterday’s unusual options activity is any indication, Wednesday wasn’t a super-busy day in the options market. There were 925 unusually active options, with 526 (57%) calls and 399 (43%) puts. While that’s mildly bullish, anytime the unusual options activity is below 1,000, it indicates lower investor interest. Sure enough, yesterday’s options volume was 44.24 million, nearly eight million less than the 52.2 million daily average. Despite the lower investor interest, I’ve found three great companies among the top 100 unusually active options, providing investors with possible long strangles to benefit from the current volatility. Starbucks (SBUX), Spotify Technology (SPOT), and GE Healthcare Technologies (GEHC) are the three companies in question. To qualify for consideration, the Volume/Open Interest (Vol/OI) had to be at least 7.41, the 100th most unusually active option from yesterday. Here’s why I like them. Starbucks (SBUX)Starbucks had two unusually active call options yesterday, with DTEs on different ends of the spectrum, at 16 and 142 days. The world’s largest coffee chain has struggled mightily to grow in recent quarters, putting significant downward pressure on SBUX stock--down 31% since hitting a 52-week high of $117.46 in early March. I last wrote about Starbucks on Barchart on July 4, 2024. The coffee purveyor had four unusually active put options worth considering for generating short-term income and/or a lower entry point to buy its stock. I’ve been bullish about Starbucks as long as I can remember. The people working at my local Halifax store are fantastic, friendly, and professional. It’s a pleasure to frequent the store. Here’s what I had to say about Starbucks: “I’ve followed Starbucks for several decades. What it does best is address pain points in its operating system. I have every confidence these plans will work,” I wrote on July 4, 2024. Brian Niccol has been CEO since coming over from Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) last September. On Tuesday, it reported Q2 2025 results. While disappointing--its same-store sales fell 2%, the fifth consecutive quarter of declining sales--Niccol feels the company’s turnaround plan is gaining momentum. However, he did say the remainder of the fiscal year (September year-end) will be challenging due to tariffs and uncertain trade. I remain bullish about the company and Niccol. I’ll stay this way until its business model becomes unworkable. Of the two unusually active call options, I prefer the Sept. 19 $80 strike over the call expiring in 15 days. A long straddle is when you buy a call and put at the same strike price. You like the stock but are unsure of its direction and expect increased volatility in its share price. So, that involves buying the $80 call and $80 put expiring in September. The ask price for the call early in Thursday trading is $7.65, while the $80 put ask price is $5.95, for a net debit of $13.60, 16.7% of its $81.32 share price. The profit probability of this long straddle is approximately 34%. Spotify Technology (SPOT)Spotify added podcasts to its music offerings in 2015, driving up its share of playtime in a very competitive music streaming marketplace. However, the launch of audiobooks in September 2022 helped turn it into a profitable company. In 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Spotify had an operating loss of 82 million euros ($92.5 million) on 13.25 billion euros ($14.95 billion) in revenue. A year later, its operating income was a whopping 1.41 billion euros ($1.59 billion) on revenue of 15.67 billion euros ($17.68 billion), an operating margin of 9.0%. In Q1 2025, that margin was 12.1%, another sign that its profitability continues to gain traction. It finished the first quarter with 268 million premium subscribers, 12% higher than Q1 2024, and a 2% increase from Q4 2024. As a result, its free cash flow increased by 158% year-over-year. As CEO and founder, Daniel Ek had to say about the current uncertainty, “The underlying data at the moment is very healthy: engagement remains high, retention is strong, and thanks to our freemium model, people have the flexibility to stay with us even when things feel more uncertain.” That’s a business I want to own. Of the two unusually active call options, I prefer the May 9 $650 strike over the call expiring in 15 days because the net debit is much lower. So, the ask price for the $650 call in Thursday trading is $3.20, while the $650 put ask price is $47.65, for a net debit of $50.85, 8.4% of its $606.21 share price. The breakeven on the upside is $700.85, while the breakeven on the downside is $599.15. The profit probability on this long straddle is approximately 42%. GE Healthcare Technologies (GEHC)The healthcare spinoff of the legacy GE industrial conglomerate reported Q1 2025 results yesterday before the markets opened. They were better than expected. Its revenue in the quarter was $4.8 billion, about $100 million more than Wall Street’s estimate, and its Q1 2024 sales. On the bottom line, it earned $1.01 a share on an adjusted basis, 11 cents better than a year ago, and 10 cents better than the analyst estimate. As I write this, its shares are down 2.5%. Investors didn’t like its revised guidance, which reflects the damage tariffs will do to its business. It still expects 2025 sales to grow 2.5% at the midpoint of its guidance. However, it sees operating margins in 2025 of 14.3%, down 240 basis points from its previous outlook, and 200 basis points from its 2024 operating margin. As a result, it expects to earn $4 a share in 2025, down 15% from its previous guidance of $4.68, and well short of Wall Street’s $4.70 projection. Tariffs are expected to cut their 2025 EPS profit by 85 cents. If not for the tariffs, its 2025 EPS guidance would have been 17 cents higher than its guidance from February. As a glass-half-full person, it trades at just 17.1x its lower EPS estimate. That’s reasonable for a company of its size and reputation. There is only one unusually active call option to consider with GEHC. That’s May 9 $72 strike with a Vol/OI ratio of 14.90. The ask price for the $72 call in Thursday trading is $0.40, while the $72 put ask price is $4.10, for a net debit of $4.50, 6.6% of its $68.54 share price. The breakeven on the upside is $76.50, while the breakeven on the downside is $67.50. The profit probability on this long straddle is approximately 41%. On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. |
|