Softs Report 02/20/19

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in recovery trading yesterday. Trends are down on the daily and the weekly charts. Trends are trying to turn up for the short-term, and the market has held nearest support. Some new buying will be needed today to confirm a stronger short-term recovery effort. The weekly export sales reports have started to show improved demand for US Cotton, but USDA is still catching up on the data. It should be caught up on the weekly reports by February 22. New demand from China would be great for the market. China and the US are meeting again this week in hopes of finding a trade agreement. There had been talk of less production from exporter countries like India. Indian and Pakistani sources will continue to insist that production is less than projected by USDA. Cotton futures will have to look for news to cause rallies at this time. Supplies are there, so demand will have to improve as USDA releases more export sales reports in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should get precipitation today and Thursday and again this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry weather. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.51 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 129,104 bales, from 129,104 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6960, 6940, and 6910 March, with resistance of 7110, 7170, and 7220 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Feb 19
As of Jan 25. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 19 19,878 22,295 -2,417 15,960 17,076 -1,116
May 19 22,134 21,262 872 2,477 2,289 188
Jul 19 31,228 30,725 503 2,797 2,725 72
Dec 19 18,620 17,590 1,030 20,248 18,855 1,393
Mar 20 7,594 6,606 988 931 253 678
May 20 2,817 2,773 44 50 50 0
Jul 20 3,767 3,767 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 1,889 1,889 0 3,995 3,900 95
Total 107,927 106,907 1,020 46,458 45,148 1,310
Open Change
Int
Mar 19 115,798 123,120 -7,322
May 19 46,311 42,938 3,373
Jul 19 28,958 27,853 1,105
Oct 19 9 10 -1
Dec 19 35,674 35,771 -97
Mar 20 2,476 2,469 7
May 20 304 301 3
Jul 20 151 148 3
Dec 20 1,130 1,128 2
Total 230,811 233,738 -2,927

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 291,440
: Positions :
: 33,311 49,649 76,548 75,704 133,247 90,179 17,820 275,741 277,263: 15,698 14,177
: Changes from: January 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: 2,342) :
: -2,040 -10 2,261 1,041 321 1,078 125 2,340 2,698: 2 -355
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.4 17.0 26.3 26.0 45.7 30.9 6.1 94.6 95.1: 5.4 4.9
: Total Traders: 306 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 94 104 59 59 45 21 246 231:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and recovered the losses from Friday on ideas that the market was oversold. The market has absorbed speculative long liquidation and producer selling through the Winter as no freeze has developed, and futures can now move seasonally higher. Longer range forecasts show that there is little chance for a freeze to develop this month, and then it will be getting to be too late for a freeze to be seen in the state of Florida. The Oranges harvest is active in Florida as the weather is warm and mostly dry. The fruit is abundant. Florida producers are seeing small-sized to good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used in all areas. Packing houses are open to process fruit for the fresh market, and all processors are open in the state to take packing house eliminations and fresh fruit. Mostly good conditions are reported in Brazil, and some beneficial rains should be seen this week.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 115.00, 114.00, and 111.00 March, with resistance at 119.00, 120.00, and 123.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,712 :
: Positions :
: 13,710 7,377 1,794 0 128 741 9,762 335 1,038 1,239 2,503 :
: Changes from: January 22, 2019 :
: -212 -333 -6 0 0 -27 638 51 102 75 192 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.8 31.1 7.6 0.0 0.5 3.1 41.2 1.4 4.4 5.2 10.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 97 :
: 25 11 6 0 . 6 30 5 14 11 13 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday on ideas of big supplies to meet any demand. New York March enters delivery today, so any selling pressure related to deliveries worries should be gone now and a short-term bounce is possible. January export data from Brazil was very strong and much above expectations. Brazil should be getting past the gut slot of its harvest, and the strong export pace from the country should start to turn down. Brazil had a big production year for the current crop, but the next crop should be less as it is the off-year for production. Ideas are that the current production of 62 or 63 or more million bags can become about 52 million bags next year. El Nino is fading, but remains in the forecast, and Coffee areas in Brazil could be affected by drought that could hurt production even more. Showers are in the forecast for this week. Vietnam is active in its harvest, and prices there have been weakening. Selling has increased as the Lunar New Year holiday is now over. Production in Vietnam is estimated less than 30 million bags due to uneven weather during the growing season.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 2.482 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 99.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers again late this week and dry weather the other days. Temperatures should be above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get mostly dry weather. ICE said that 98 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month now total 98 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 100.00, 97.00, and 94.00 May, and resistance is at 103.00, 105.00 and 108.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1520, and 1500 May, and resistance is at 1560, 1580, and 1610 May.

DJ ECF Coffee Inventories Ticked Up in December
By David Hodari
European coffee stocks rebounded in December, after slipping the previous month, the European Coffee Federation said late Monday.
Stocks rose by 3,371 tons, or 0.5% to 688,739 metric tons from 685,368 tons in November, the data shows. ECF inventories closed out 2018 more than 17% higher than the level at which they ended 2017.
The data tracks the total amount of beans held at six major European coffee ports–Antwerp in Belgium, Barcelona, Hamburg, Le Havre in France and Trieste and Genoa in Italy.
The data revealed inventory gains over the month at Antwerp and Hamburg–the ports with the highest stocks–as well as Barcelona.
Antwerp’s inventory rose by 1,877 tons to 379,850 tons. Number-two port Hamburg recorded a 1,664-ton increase to 107,374 tons, while Barcelona’s inventories rose 1,066 to 42,919 tons.
Genoa’s and Le Havre’s inventories fell by 247 tons and 140 tons to 89,790 tons and 27,684 tons, respectively.
Supply at Trieste shrank by 849 tons to 41,122 tons.
London-traded robusta futures were last down 0.78% at $1,517 a ton and New York-traded arabica was down 0.54% at $1.01 a pound.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 369,574
: Positions :
: 34,011 96,120 103,939 138,047 126,781 72,722 31,686 348,719 358,525: 20,855 11,048
: Changes from: January 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: 19,787) :
: 1,449 1,908 8,524 5,024 4,709 3,536 3,436 18,533 18,577: 1,254 1,210
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 26.0 28.1 37.4 34.3 19.7 8.6 94.4 97.0: 5.6 3.0
: Total Traders: 495 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 155 128 142 138 117 47 29 409 359:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower. London weekly charts show a key reversal higher, and chart patterns on the weekly charts in both markets imply that higher prices are coming. There is nothing apparent in the news or in the statistics to cause the move higher, but something has changed. Reports that Brazilian mills might pause and give Sugarcane production a chance to improve helped support the market. Brazil weather is improving in all areas as there is less rain in southern areas and more to the north. However, some mills are concerned that the overall production of Sugarcane will be down. Petroleum futures strength seems to be helping change the tone in Sugar. Brazil has been using the majority of its Sugarcane harvest to produce ethanol this year instead of Sugar. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand, but India weather right now is not very Good and a smaller Sugarcane crop is possible due to the weather and weak internal prices.
Overnight News: Brazil will get showers again late this week and dry weather the other days. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1330 and 1390 May. Support is at 1290, 1270, and 1250 May, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1390 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 360.00 May. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 346.00 May, and resistance is at 361.00, 365.00, and 375.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,074,232
: Positions :
: 75,826 155,207 223,667 387,966 567,239 295,134 55,236 982,593 1,001,349: 91,639 72,883
: Changes from: January 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: 979) :
: -4,453 7,926 165 13,077 -424 -4,393 -5,258 4,396 2,409: -3,417 -1,429
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.1 14.4 20.8 36.1 52.8 27.5 5.1 91.5 93.2: 8.5 6.8
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 58 60 82 83 77 34 23 217 206:
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher again on follow through buying tied to uncertain weather conditions in West Africa. Conditions in the most of West Africa appear to be good, but Harmattan winds were recently reported in Nigeria. The outlook for strong production in the coming year is still around, and ports are said to have plenty of Cocoa on offer. The main crop harvest is active in West Africa, and Ivory Coast arrivals are strong. Some early week showers and cooler temperatures were beneficial, it is warmer now and mostly dry. Conditions appear good in East Africa and Asia. Demand is said to be improving as offers from the new harvest start to increase. Ivory Coast arrivals are now estimated at 1.442 million tons, from 1.321 million last year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.839 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2360 and 2440 May. Support is at 2300, 2280, and 2250 May, with resistance at 2370, 2400, and 2450 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1780 May. Support is at 1720, 1700, and 1660 Mary, with resistance at 1770, 1790, and 1820 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 293,879
: Positions :
: 38,657 40,313 66,829 111,018 155,256 61,980 18,960 278,484 281,358: 15,396 12,521
: Changes from: January 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: -1,931) :
: -617 -965 2,460 -2,855 -4,074 -2,580 -833 -3,592 -3,412: 1,661 1,481
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 13.7 22.7 37.8 52.8 21.1 6.5 94.8 95.7: 5.2 4.3
: Total Traders: 222 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 49 72 46 44 35 16 189 156:
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