Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are steady to 3 cents lower in most contracts on Wednesday. Weekly EIA data showed 1.072 million barrels per day of ethanol were produced in the week that ended on June 21. That was down just 9,000 bpd from the previous week and even with the same week last year. Stocks of ethanol were down 46,000 barrels at 21.567 million barrels. The trade range of estimates for old crop corn sales in the week of June 20 is 150,000-450,000 MT, with new crop at 100,000-300,000 MT. The average trade estimate for corn acreage ahead of Friday’s Grain Stocks is 5.332 bbu, which would be 27 mbu larger than the same time last year. USDA has stated that corn can be planted for silage on prevent plant acres as a “cover crop,” This could skew planted acreage higher when all is said and done but obviously will not be counted in the harvested acreage.

Jul 19 Corn is at $4.44 1/2, down 3 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $4.51 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $4.56 1/2, down 1 cent

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.61 1/4, down 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 cents lower in the front months at midday. Soybean meal are down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 10 points lower. USDA reported a private export sale of 145,000 MT of soybeans to Unknown for 18/19 delivery this morning. Ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report, analysts expect soybean sales to be 200,000-500,000 MT for old crop and 100,000-300,000 MT for new crop. Meal sales are estimated at 75,000-350,000 MT, with 5,000-25,000 MT for soy oil. Per wire surveys, US soybean stocks on June 1 are seen at 1.861 bbu, a 642 mbu jump from last year if realized. Wednesday’s Stats Canada report showed Canola acreage intentions at 21 million acres, down 8.2% from last year.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.98, down 5 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $9.03 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.09 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $9.21 1/2, down 5 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $313.80, down $1.90

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.90, down $0.10

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 1 to 6 cents higher in most contracts on Wednesday. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show 200,000-500,000 MT in wheat export sales for the new 19/20 MY. Published trade estimates have 18/19 US wheat ending stocks estimates hovering around 1.100 billion bushels. Last year was at 1.099 bbu. Wednesday’s Stats Canada report indicated that total Canadian wheat acreage intentions are at 24.6 million acres, down slightly from a year ago. Durum is seen down 1.3 million at 4.9 million acres. Agritel estimates Russia’s wheat crop at 81.7 MMT for 2019, a 1.9 MMT jump from their previous projection. Philippines importers are tendering for 200,000 MT of wheat.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.41 3/4, up 6 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.68 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.53 1/2, up 5 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are up $1 to $2.25 on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are posting limit gains in August, with most other contracts at least $4 higher after lagging the fats on Tuesday. The CME feeder cattle index was up a nickel @ $131.46 on June 24. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Wednesday morning, with the Ch/Se spread widening to $21.07. Choice boxes were up 59 at $220.23 with Select boxes 21 cents higher @ $199.16. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 242,000 through Tuesday. That was 2,000 head larger than last week and 12,000 head more than the same week a year ago. There are a few $107 cash cattle bids out there, with a few asking prices at $110-111. USDA reported a few $180 dressed sales in NE. Both of the lots listed on Wednesday’s FCE auction went unsold.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $109.275, up $1.525,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $105.500, up $2.250,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $106.725, up $1.875,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $135.825, up $4.500

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.275, up $4.400

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.625, up $4.325

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are trading 15 to 85 cents lower in the front months, with deferred contracts higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 34 cents from the previous day @ $78.31 on June 24. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 95 cents @ $74.63. The belly primal was down $2.62, with the rib $10.26 lower. The national average base hog price was down $1.76 on Wednesday morning at $70.31 per hundred pounds. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter through Tuesday was 923,000 head. That was down 21,000 from the previous week after a slow Monday, but 42,000 more than the same week in 2018. Analysts expect NASS to show the June 1 hog herd at 75.052 million head this Thursday, up 3% from last year. Hogs kept for breeding are seen up 2.1% at 6.453 million, with marketing at 68.609 million head up 3.1% yr/yr.

Jul 19 Hogs are at $73.550, down $0.850,

Aug 19 Hogs are at $75.625, down $0.550

Oct 19 Hogs are at $69.750, down $0.150

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are up 90 to 226 points in most contracts at midday. The dollar index is slightly weaker at midday, with crude oil showing gains. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg show 2019 cotton acreage ideas at an average of 13.74 million acres (Reuters – 13.819 million acres), just slightly below the March Intentions report. The Cotlook A index for June 25 was UNCH points from the previous day to 76.40 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is 59.14 cents/lb through Thursday.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 64.46, up 226 points,

Oct 19 Cotton is at 66.55, up 90 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 67.03, up 131 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 67.650, up 118 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
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