Top Farmer Closing Commentary 6-26-19

CORN: Corn futures are trading moderately lower this morning as traders begin to square up before Friday's report. Jul corn is down 4-1/4 cents to 4.43-1/4, Sep corn is down 3-1/4 cents to 4.49-3/4, and Dec corn is down 2-1/2 to 4.55. Warmer weather for the next two weeks will be a bearish factor as crop conditions will likely benefit from the heat units. Price action today has been negative with prices never trading over the open for the day. Still, Dec futures are trading 4 cents off of the day's lows as the corn market proves hard to break. A successful test of the overhead 10-day moving average would be positive, but we expect action to be muted before Friday. Funds sold about 4,000 contracts of corn during yesterday's session.

SOYBEANS: Soybean markets are soft this morning with Jul, Sep, and Nov all down 6 cents to 8.97-1/2, 9.08-1/2, and 9.20-1/2 respectively. Warm and dry weather this week is beneficial for planting, as well as improving crop conditions. President Trump and China will meet later this week at G20 to hopefully restart trade negotiations, and news this morning that the U.S. may delay the next round of tariffs on $300 bil worth of Chinese goods is also supportive. Still, markets are trading with a risk off attitude, especially given the possibility of higher than expected soybean planted acres on Friday's report. Nov beans traded as low this morning as 9.17-1/2, but have since retraced about half of the day's losses. A close below the recent trading range would look negative. Funds sold 6,000 contracts of soybeans during yesterday's session.

WHEAT: Wheat markets are recovering nicely from yesterday's losses with Jul Chi wheat up 8 cents to 5.43-3/4, Jul KC wheat is up 2-1/2 cents to 4.67-3/4, and Jul spring wheat is up 4-1/4 cents to 5.52-3/4. Dryer weather in the Plains is helping winter wheat harvest this week, but there is talk that with rallying corn, feedlots are beginning to feed increasing portions of wheat to cattle, especially with newfound supply during harvest. The KC Chi winter wheat spread is down sharply this morning with questions about the soft red wheat yields due to excess moisture. Chi wheat markets tested their 10-day moving average support levels today and are trading at the highs of the session so far. KC futures also tested their 10-day and 20-day moving average levels and are moving towards the highs of the day. Funds sold about 3,000 contracts of wheat in Chi during yesterday's session.

CATTLE: Cattle markets are showing strong gains so far today with Jun lives up 1.20 to 108.95, Aug lives are up 1.77 to 105.02, and Oct lives are up 1.30 to 106.15. Aug feeders are up 4.10 to 135.42, and Sep feeders are up 3.75 to 135.62. Ideas that beef demand may be a bit stronger than was expected was a positive, and the bottoming price action the past few days despite heavy production is also positive. If beef production can taper off, lower beef stocks and possibly stronger demand should spell higher prices. Still, despite the talk of better demand, beef prices have yet to respond, at least so far. All three nearby live cattle futures contracts have punched through overhead resistance at the 10 and 20-day moving average levels. Feeder markets have broken through their 10-day moving average levels, but have not yet tested their 20-day moving average levels.

HOGS: Hog markets are mixed in relatively quiet trade today. Jul hogs are down 22 cents to 74.17, Aug hogs are up 5 cents to 76.22, and Oct hogs are up 32 cents to 70.22. Prices made new lows in the nearby Jul contract today, but have since rallied back and are trading at the day's highs. News this morning that China banned all Canadian pork imports is positive, especially as we approach a trade meeting between President Trump and President Xi. While the market is not expecting a trade deal this week, if means can get back on track, this could spell solid exports of U.S. pork to China, especially given very high pig prices in China.

Market Commentary provided by:

Total Farm Marketing
137 South Main Street, West Bend, WI 53095
Phone: 800-334-9779