Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures saw mixed trade on Tuesday, with front months fractionally to 1 1/4 cents higher and deferred 2020 contracts 1 to 3 cents lower. Warmer weather in the forecast may help to progress the crop that is at record slow pace. After the Monday close, NASS reported crop condition ratings declining 5 points to 349. Ratings in OH fell the sharpest, down 26 points, with MI (-16), IN (-13), ND (-13), MO (-8) and IL (-7) all reported lower. IA rose 6 points, with MN up 3 and NE 2 points higher. The average trade estimate for corn acreage ahead of Friday’s USDA report is 87.03 million corn acres for the US in 2019 according to a Bloomberg survey. USDA has stated that corn can be planted for silage on prevent plant acres as a “cover crop,”

AgRural pegs Brazil’s second corn crop at 19% harvested, well above the 5-year average at 7%.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.47 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $4.53, up 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.57 1/2, up 1/4 cent

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.62, down 1 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed 5 to 8 cents lower in most contracts on Tuesday. Soybean meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 35 points lower. The 7-day QPF shows drier weather across most growing regions, allowing for planting to pick up later this week. Most of the ECB is lagging, with IL 79% planted, IN @ 75%, OH 65% complete and MO at just 66% planted. Initial condition ratings showed all of the 18 reported states other than NC and LA below the same week in 2018. Per wire surveys, US acreage for 2019 is expected to be around 84.68 million acres in this Friday’s report. Chinese imports of soybeans were down 24% in May from the same month last year at 7.36 MMT, with 977,024 MT from US.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.03 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.08 3/4, down 6 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.14 1/2, down 6 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.38 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $315.70, down $1.90,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.00, down $0.35

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed mixed on Tuesday, with HRS up 2 to 5 cents and CBT 1 to 2 1/2 cents lower. KC was mixed, anywhere from 1 1/4 cents lower to a penny higher. Winter wheat conditions in KS were down 5 points, with OK 12 lower. The only spring wheat states to see an increase were SD and WA. Winter wheat in KS is just 5% harvested, with OK at 43% and TX 58% complete. Drier forecasts for the Southern Plains should allow for harvest to pick up this week. Published trade estimates have USDA putting all wheat acres at 45.65 million acres on Friday, with spring wheat at 12.59 million. The latter would be down 240,000 acres from March.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.35 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.65 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.48 1/2, up 5 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended 32.5 to 82.5 cents higher in most contracts on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were 7.5 to 45 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up a nickel @ $131.46 on June 24. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down a dime at $219.64 with Select boxes 86 cents lower @ $198.95. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 242,000 through Tuesday. That was 2,000 head larger than last week and 12,000 head more than the same week a year ago. There are a few $107 cash cattle bids being shown at midday. The few asking prices available have been up around $110-111. USDA reported a few $180 dressed sales in NE.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $107.750, up $0.825,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $103.250, up $0.825,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $104.850, up $0.825,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $131.325, down $0.450

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $131.875, down $0.475

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $132.300, down $0.300

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted 50 cent to $1.95 gains on Turnaround Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 49 cents from the previous day @ $78.65 on June 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.75 @ $75.58. The belly was down $9.47 after being up on Monday. The national average base hog price was down $1.33 on Tuesday afternoon at $72.18 per hundred pounds. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter through Tuesday 923,000 head. That was down 21,000 from the previous week but 42,000 more than the same week in 2018. Analysts expect NASS to show the June 1 hog herd at 75.052 million head this Thursday, up 3% from last year. Hogs kept for breeding are seen up 2.1% at 6.453 million, with marketing at 68.609 million head up 3.1% yr/yr.

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $74.400, up $1.550,

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $76.175, up $1.950

Oct 19 Hogs closed at $69.900, up $0.850

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were down 10 points in nearby July but 3 to 29 points higher in most other front months. NASS indicated crop condition rating in TX dropped 9 points to 313 (Brugler500 index), with GA improving by 9. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg show 2019 cotton acreage ideas at an average of 13.74 million acres, just slightly below the March Intentions report. The Cotlook A index for June 24 was down 45 points from the previous day to 76.40 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is 59.14 cents/lb through Thursday.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 62.200, down 10 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 65.650, up 29 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 65.720, up 3 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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