AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are currently 1 to 2 cents lower in most contracts on Friday. Pressure is coming from forecasts for rain across the Corn Belt over the next week. Total export commitments are now 6.7% larger than this time in 2017. They are now 99% of the USDA full year projection, with 104% the normal pace for mid-August (there are always sales that can’t be shipped rolled over to new crop). Exports are just 88% of that 17/18 estimate vs. the 93% average, as there are still 6.849 MMT in unshipped sales with just a shade over 3 reporting weeks left in the MY. China sold 850,780 MT of corn from state reserves into the domestic market on Friday, totaling 21.49% of the amount offered.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.64 1/4, down 1 cent,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.78 3/4, down 1 cent,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.90, down 1 1/2 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.97 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are mostly 9 to 10 cents in the red at midday. Traders are taking money from this week’s gains off the table ahead of the weekend. Losses are also mounted by widespread rains forecast for most of the Corn Belt. Nearby soy meal is down $4.10.ton, with soy oil 2 points higher. Soybean export commitments are now lagging last year by 4.3%, slipping a little from last week. Compared to the USDA full year projection, they are 102% complete vs. the 104% normal pace. Actual exports are 94% of that number lagging average by 3%, with 4.718 MMT in unshipped sales remaining.

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.76 1/2, down 9 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.88, down 9 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $9.00 1/4, down 9 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans are at $9.10 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal is at $330.50, down $4.10

Sep 18 Soybean Oil is at $28.17, up $0.02

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing 14 to 17 cent gains in the nearby winter wheat contracts, with MPLS 11 to 12 cents higher. A weaker US dollar index, down 333 points at the moment, is providing support. A report was floating around earlier this morning suggesting Russia could cap exports at 30 MMT. The Russian Ag ministry released a statement that they are not considering such a limitation and expect exports to total 35 MMT this MY. Total US export commitments (outstanding sales plus previous shipments) are now 25.5% behind last year, gaining 3% on that moving target since the previous week.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.59, up 16 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $5.64 1/2, up 17 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.07 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are trading 30 to 60 cents higher in the front months. Feeder cattle futures are mixed with nearby August 27.5 lower and a few back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 5 cents from the previous day at $150.29. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Friday morning. Choice boxes were up $2.20 at $211.30, while Select boxes were up 23 cents at $201.69. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 474,000 head through Thursday. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week but 8,000 head above the same week in 2017. Bids of $108 are being shown across the country still on Friday, with a few sales of $173 in the beef in NE. Asking prices are still hanging around $111-112. Total export commitments for 2018 are now a phenomenal 19% larger than last year.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $108.650, up $0.325,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $109.875, up $0.600,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $113.550, up $0.350,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.000, down $0.275

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.375, up $0.250

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $150.500, up $0.275

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing another round of gains on Friday, with most contracts 50 to $1.425 higher. African Swine Flu rolling through the Chinese hog herd is helping support the market at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.02 on August 15, to $54.21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was not reported on Friday morning due to packer submission issues. The national base hog carcass value was down 86 cents in the Friday AM report, with the weighted average @ $40.52. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter at 1.859 million head through Thursday. That is up 87,000 head from last week, and 67,000 head above the same week last year. Full year 2018 export commitments are 6.1% above this time last year, based on FAS weekly numbers and not the more complete but lagged Census numbers.

Oct 18 Hogs are at $56.900, up $1.425,

Dec 18 Hogs are at $53.725, up $1.275

Feb 19 Hogs are at $59.975, up $0.625

Cotton

Cotton futures are down 25 to 46 points in most front month contracts at Friday’s midday. A weaker dollar is helping to limit losses in the cotton. US Export commitments for upland cotton are now 35.8% above the same week in 2017. They are already 58% of the current 18/19 USDA export projection, with the typical pace at 35%. The Cotlook A index was down 215 points from the previous day at 90.75 cents/lb on August 15. The weekly AWP was updated to 75.45 cents/lb through next Thursday, down 422 points from the previous week.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 81.75, down 38 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 81.34, down 46 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 81.6, down 41 points

May 19 Cotton is at 82.080, down 25 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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